Football Ground Map
Football Ground Map
Punters have a lot to consider when trying to settle on a betting pick. Pre-match analysis can include a wealth of statistical information, like current form, scoring rate, and the ability of a defence to shut down an opponent.
That kind of data is fantastic, but making a betting pick goes well beyond just the numbers. Just like choosing a bookmaker from a list of new betting sites, you need to look at the bigger picture. You should size up more than just odds and markets, and look beyond at things like customer service and features.
For football betting, that translates into sizing up external factors like the potential starting eleven, injury news, and breaking transfer rumours that could potentially unsettle a player. Even the weather plays a big factor too.
Every punter is probably aware that where a match is being played will affect the odds in a football match. The home team advantage is part and parcel of football betting when teams playing in their own backyard can receive a psychological and performance boost.
However, the playing conditions of a fixture can be a great leveller and something that can get overlooked in football betting. The weather, whether it is blistering heat or some mid-winter rain and cold, can have an effect on the pitch.
So too can overuse and general wear and tear, especially among the lower leagues where maintenance is not as high as say at Premier League or Bundesliga clubs. The pitch condition is a factor which is worth exploring for betting.
A fiercely hot day could make a stronger team that usually plays a high-pressing game, more hesitant over energy expenditure, dialling back their attacking influence. A game played in slick, wet conditions naturally makes teams a little more defensive because of concerns about slipping at a crucial time or increased injury risks.
When you think about how much the weather and playing conditions influence other major outdoor sports like cricket, horse racing and tennis, it becomes apparent that it should be factored into football betting pictures as well.
There is a perceived notion that in conditions like rain or snow, underdogs have a stronger chance of claiming a victory or at least avoiding defeat. This is not necessarily reflected in the match odds, certainly not when they are posted a few days out from the fixture.
If the underdogs in a match are facing a team that plays the majority of their football on the deck with sharp passing and movement, then the underdogs may have an easier time combating such play on a pitch that is cut up and weathered.
It is worth looking back at times when underdogs have managed to upset the odds. Look at all the factors as to how that result was achieved. Did the weather and playing conditions have any part in that?
Tactics are the other big thing to take into consideration. A manager may decide to try and deal with poor playing conditions by suddenly deviating from usual tactics. These are further nuances that should be taken into account when making betting picks.
So teams may well adapt to playing conditions. This may not even be a conscious thing that's decided in the dressing room before kick-off. A team may be sent out to play their natural game, but the conditions underfoot just don't allow for a plan to be executed as well as it could be.
This is where punters should take on another angle for wagers, which is in-play betting. It's a massive feature of football betting and it is something to be used when you have some queries about playing conditions.
If you can see some projected rain creeping in at a stadium ahead of kick-off, then you may want to give it 10 or 15 minutes to see how teams are settling into the conditions. Then you can make your betting judgements based on what you are seeing.
It is essential to weigh up the playing conditions and weather when approaching your football betting. It's not immediately obvious, as it's easy to get caught up in just what the statistics are telling you.
But sometimes there has to be an adjustment because of external factors. It could be trying to spot a team's slump in form when the winter starts creeping in. Is a team facing a congested fixture list with a heatwave about to hit?
Keep an eye on the weather as well as data like head-to-head records and tactics. It can sound like another big ingredient to put into the recipe, but if you are looking to really pull together strong football betting picks then it can be worth the extra effort.
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